Singapore's RSAF Decides to Fly Like An Eagle
Posted 07-Sep-2005 09:48
"Splash Two...!"On August 25, 2005, DID published F-15E Strike Eagle Taking Off With Singapore Contract? Well, the Strike Eagle has now left the tarmac. This Ministry of Defence release notes, simply: "...MINDEF is now in the process of seeking final clarifications and contract negotiation with Boeing." This 20-plane, $1+ billion order ($1.4-1.8 billion is likely) to replace Singapore's ancient A-4SU Skyhawks is good news for Boeing. Combined with the $3.6 billion, 40-plane South Korean F-15K, it ensures continued production of their 2-seat, multi-role Strike Eagle fighter. It's also good news for the manufacturers mentioned in Singapore's associated weapons and services request, which could be worth another $741 million if all options are exercised.
The news is much less good for France's Rafale, however, in ways that go beyond this competition alone - and speak to the state and segmentation of the global fighter market.
Rafale: mayday call?Dassault's Rafale remains without a single export order to date, having lost out in Norway (F-35 or Eurofighter), the Netherlands (F-35 Joint Strike Fighter), and South Korea (F-15K Strike Eagle).
The streak remains unbroken in Singapore. A Dassault news release noted that their hopes: "...failed to materialize. There seem to be two main reasons for this decision:
the dollar's current weakness is a definite handicap for the economic competitiveness of the French offer;
America's power might once again bore [sic] out the old Chinese proverb: Bamboo always leans the way it's pushed the hardest"
Actually, if this contract bears out a proverb, it's more likely to be Charlie Brown's old adage that "winning isn't everything, but losing isn't anything."
Thanks for the memories...........
Singapore's relationship with the USA includes complementary weapons and equipment already in stock for the F-15s, joint operations and strategic concerns, and even Singaporean Ch-47 Chinook helicopters and pilots currently flying hurricane relief missions inside the USA. This deepening relationship has been consistently noted by DID as a source of advantage for Boeing. Nevertheless, Singapore has bought major defense platforms from France before and continues to so.
The Rafale's problems run deeper.
The problem is positioning. The Rafale is finding itself squeezed on three fronts.
JAS-39 Gripen[1]
Many nations do not have the funding or the need for an "omni-role fighter" aircraft in the $60+ million range, and are explicitly purchasing light fighters like Lockheed's F-16 (Greece, also Turkey, and many others), Saab/BAE's SA-39 Gripen (Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa), and Dassault's own Mirage 2000 instead (Taiwan, UAE, possibly India) in the $20-30 million range - or buying used. For instance, Thailand got Singapore's older F-16A aircraft when Singapore upgraded to a newer model of F-16.
Singapore, with its long sea lanes and wide potential area of operation, had a different set of requirements, and an immediate need to replace their ancient A-4SU Skyhawks. To put that need in perspective, Sen. John McCain was flying an A-4 Skyhawk when he was shot down over North Vietnam.
F-35A JSF[2]
Among advanced militaries, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter appears poised to become the next F-16. Decisions like MBDA's announcement that they would adapt their Meteor long-range air-air missile for the F-35 reflect a growing acknowledgement of that reality.
The Joint Strike Fighter is an affordable 5th Generation aircraft, with a wide base of international participants (USA, Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Turkey) and improved capabilities. As the program moves closer to completion, analysts expect its influence on procurement decisions will grow stronger and induce many countries to wait instead.
Sukhoi SU-37[3]
Meanwhile, both the Russian SU-27/30 family (Russia, China, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, et. al.), and the EADS Eurofighter (Austria, Britain, Italy, Germany, Spain) offer stiff competition and loyal customer bases in the realm of 4th generation aircraft. The F-15 Strike Eagle is also emerging as a strong export competitor in this realm (USA, Israel, Korea, Singapore), which is particularly bad news for Dassault given its compatibility with widely-used American munitions, targeting pods, communications systems, etc.
As DID has noted before, Singapore's quality military, leading-edge doctrine, and smart procurement decisions have made them an influential bellwether customer whose military decisions are seen as a meaningful endorsement in Asia and beyond. Had they selected Dassault's Rafale over Boeing, it could well have opened doors for that aircraft elsewhere. Instead, the Rafale's export mission just got tougher. Dassault's bravado concerning global fighter trends and opportunities notwithstanding.
The problem, in oneIndeed, continued failure to secure export orders could have real blowback effects into the Rafale program for France.
The Rafale program was always dependent on some level of foreign orders to help finance its ongoing modernization and upgrade plans. If that option continues to fail, France's budget constraints could leave the Rafale falling steadily behind even its 4th Generation peers, in a vicious spiral that further crimps export opportunities.
Back when France was still part of the Eurofighter consortium, their rigid insistence on their own specifications and on deciding all work-sharing unilaterally forced a parting of the ways. While French requirements really were quite specific, the decision has thus far proven to be a very expensive one.
Meanwhile, while DID fully expects F-15 Strike Eagles to fly over Singapore alongside its F-16s and locally upgraded F/RF-5s, it's important to note that the Strike Eagle contract has not yet been finalized. When and if it is, DID will report the details.
Defense Industry Daily
Rafale ! Rafale ! Rafale ! 
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